By Rich Stevens
My forecast for the West Virginia high school boys basketball postseason certainly wasn’t impeccable, but I’m not complaining.
March Madness, for me, is the Mountain East Conference and the girls and boys high school tournaments. I can partake in some NCAA Division I craziness, but it’s what happens at the Charleston Civic Center for three weeks of the month that gets my blood flowing.
There are no prizes for doing well here. Just the satisfaction of knowing that I was dumb enough to tell everybody who I thought would reach the final 24.
The state tournament pairings are in, setting the stage for what promises to be one of the most entertaining and competitive fields in recent memory.
I’m an advocate of accountability and full disclosure, and more than happy to reveal just where I stumbled in my prognostication ability.
I correctly selected 19 of the 24 state tournament teams, taking a chance on some underdogs — Webster County, Man and Charleston Catholic, for example.
Still, entering the regional co-finals, 43 of the my 48 picks were still playing and my top five seeds in each class are still playing — even if the seeds don’t match.
IN CLASS AAA, six of my teams are still practicing as part of the final eight.
I misfired on Hedgesville and St. Albans. In my defense, both were legitimate contenders to get out of the region.
Then again, both were eliminated before the regional. I also had Hedgesville at No. 7 and St. Albans at No. 8 and Musselman and Hurricane are 7 and 8 respectively.
My seeds are a little off, but those are often a tossup. I believe in head-to-head being a tiebreaker, barring a ridiculous discrepancy in won-loss records. That’s why I had Capital No. 2 ahead and Huntington No. 3. The Cougars have lost only to unbeaten and top-seeded Morgantown since Jan. 15. On that day, Huntington defeated the Cougars by three and Capital has since avenged that defeat in a conference championship game on a neutral court that should have had more influence on the seeding.
Morgantown will have a tough climb to the title, but the Mohigans don’t often employ constant full-court pressure that can lead to foul trouble when games are called tight (a typical scene at the state tournament).
The opposite is true of Huntington and Capital. I know, the Highlanders are two-time defending champions, but I can’t help but rave about Morgantown’s half-court defense. Kenzie Melko and Elvin McNally are a handful with their length and Steven Solomon gives the Mohigans great balance in the backcourt. And, they won’t succumb to the all-out frantic pressure of the Highlanders.
You probably all ready figured out that I think Morgantown will be the first Class AAA team since Stonewall Jackson in 1985 to go unbeaten.
MINE
CLASS AAA
- Morgantown
- Capital
- Huntington
- Woodrow Wilson
- Martinsburg
- Parkersburg South
- Hedgesville
- St. Albans
ACTUAL
- Morgantown
- Huntington
- Capital
- Woodrow Wilson
- Martinsburg
- Parkersburg South
- Musselman
- Hurricane
CLASS AA
The class has long been the most competitive. It could be again, despite top-heavy Class AAA.
Luke Frampton and Elijah Cuffee are the cornerstones of the defending champion and top-seeded Poca Dots, and Kaden Meeks brings pinpoint 3-point shooting to the table.
However, there is a lot of history in the field.
No. 2 Bridgeport has played in semis two of last three years; No. 3 Fairmont Senior reached two of last three finals; No. 4 Wyoming East returns after reaching 2012 semis and won in 2008 and 2009; Robert C. Byrd played in semis (2013) and finals (2014) two of last three years; and Bluefield won the 2013 and 2014 titles.
Bluefield is a dark horse at No. 6 and Ravenswood and Chapmanville are extreme long shots to get past the first round.
Can you pick against Poca? You sure can and could probably come up with many reasons to choose another team.
I can’t.
MINE
- Poca
- Fairmont Senior
- Bridgeport
- Robert C. Byrd
- Bluefield
- Wyoming East
- Chapmanville
- Webster County
ACTUAL
- Poca
- Bridgeport
- Fairmont Senior
- Wyoming East
- Robert C. Byrd
- Bluefield
- Ravenswood
- Chapmanville
CLASS A
This is one I stumbled on because I predicted Wheeling Central would defeat Magnolia in the sectional championship. Oops.
The Blue Eagles have the state’s most prolific scorer in Preston Boswell and Wheeling Central’s Chase Harler, who are on a crash course to the title game again.
I picked Tug Valley to emerge from Region 3, but I also picked Man. The Hillbillies lost in the sectionals to Van and then Fayetteville won the regional co-final.
In Region 4, Charleston Catholic was my pick because of its postseason history.
Anyway, the final eight comes down to Wheeling Central and Magnolia. Tug Valley, appropriately No. 3, is the third-best team here and No. 4 Notre Dame doesn’t offer a lot of depth after guard Jarrod West.
The best first-round matchup is Notre Dame and St. Joseph at 9 p.m. on Thursday, their third meeting of the season. The teams split the first two and separated by only four points.
Obviously, Magnolia and Wheeling Central are very evenly matched, which brings it down to coaching. Coaches say coaching is overrated. I say that’s coachspeak. When to call timeouts, scribbling the right things on the dry-erase board and saying the right things — all those matter.
It’s no coincidence that Magnolia coach Dave Tallman has won two state titles with as many combined regular season losses (11 in 2000 and 7 in 2003) as any two Class AA state champs in history. Sounds arbitrary, but it speaks to game management when the chips are down.
Tallman is 10-4 in Class AA and Class A state tournaments. That also means something.
Does anybody think it’s a coincidence that his son has guided Morgantown to an undefeated record so far?
This father-son combination is more similar than physical mannerisms.
This is my tiebreaker in this series and in the title game on Saturday. A toss-up, perhaps, but my coin landed on Magnolia.
As a side note on the state tournament: Only six of the state’s top 15 scorers are playing this week — 1. Boswell, Magnolia (34.8), 6. West, Notre Dame (23.6), 7. Harler, Wheeling Central (23.5), 9. Tavian Dunn-Martin, Huntington (21.), 10. Nick Greely, Bridgeport (21.5); 13. Elijah Cuffee, Poca (20.6).
MINE
- Wheeling Central
- Magnolia
- Tug Valley
- St. Joseph
- Notre Dame
- Man
- Charleston Catholic
- Tucker County
ACTUAL
- Magnolia
- Wheeling Central
- Tug Valley
- Notre Dame
- St. Joseph
- Tucker County
- Parkersburg Catholic
- Fayetteville
